Damtech guide
El Niño 2026/27: What It Means for Water Security on South African Farms
South Africa is heading into one of the strongest El Niño events on record, and the water risk it brings is very different from one farm to the next. National dams are close to full, yet many farms still depend on a single borehole, a small earth dam or a few tanks. This guide pulls together the latest forecasts and what they mean for water security on South African farms in the 2026/27 season.
Forecasts describe probabilities, not certainties, so treat this as a planning guide and check the latest outlooks from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) as the season unfolds.
What is El Niño, and how strong is this one?
El Niño is a warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over southern Africa it tends to bring lower summer rainfall and higher temperatures, although the effect varies from season to season.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory in June 2026 and put the chance of a "very strong" event at about 63%. On 1 September SAWS said Pacific sea-surface temperatures had already crossed the very-strong threshold and that the event could become the strongest in living memory, peaking between about October 2026 and January 2027 (SAnews).
What the forecasts say for South African farmers
- Below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of the country for October to December 2026, and November to January looks very similar.
- Above-normal temperatures are considered very likely, with heatwaves more frequent if the dry conditions materialise.
- The far north-east, including the Kruger National Park area, is expected to be hardest hit, and KwaZulu-Natal can expect El Niño effects from October 2026 to March 2027.
- The event is not expected to fade until around February or March 2027, close to the end of the summer cropping season.
SAWS has also cautioned that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean severe drought. Of the three very strong events since 1979, 1982/83 and 2015/16 brought widespread drought, but 1997/98 brought slightly above-normal rain to parts of the summer rainfall region. Its advice is simple: manage conservatively and prepare early.
Why full dams do not mean every farm is safe
South Africa enters the season in a much stronger position than in 2015. National dam storage was about 95.6% on 2 November 2026, compared with about 55% in August 2016, according to the Department of Water and Sanitation's weekly reservoir report. Soil moisture and veld are also in good condition after a long, wet 2025/26 season.
That protects bulk supply and irrigation schemes, but it leaves real gaps:
- About 80% of field crops are rain-fed. Full dams do little for dryland maize or grazing when summer rain fails.
- The Western Cape had one of its driest winters in decades. Its main supply system was around 79% in September, with several key dams far below last year, and agricultural allocations are at risk if the next winter is also dry.
- Boreholes and small farm dams react fast. In 2015/16, 29 of 89 emergency boreholes drilled came up dry, which shows that groundwater is not an automatic fallback in a deep drought.
- Municipal systems lose a large share of water to leaks. National non-revenue water is about 47%, so outages can happen even when dams are full.
In other words, the most useful question for a farmer is not "are the dams full?" but "how much water do I have stored, and how much of it will I lose before I use it?"
Where farm water is most exposed this summer
| Region | Main water exposure |
|---|---|
| Limpopo and Mpumalanga | Rain-fed crops, cattle, communal grazing and heat stress on subtropical fruit |
| Free State and North West | Dryland maize and sunflower; livestock grazing. Dams are full, but rain-fed land is exposed |
| KwaZulu-Natal | Sugarcane, veld-fire risk and municipal water losses |
| Eastern Cape | Livestock, which suffered heavy losses in 2015/16 |
| Western Cape | Low dam levels after a dry winter and possible allocation cuts |
These ratings are a qualitative summary of the research, not an official classification.
Lessons from the 2015/16 drought
The last very strong El Niño left a clear record. About 246,600 farmers were affected and roughly 186,000 livestock died. Researchers warned that the loss of breeding stock would cause livestock shortages for two to four years afterwards (Scholtz et al., 2016). Relief arrived late: by March 2016 only about 42,000 farmers had been assisted (SAnews).
The practical lesson is that the farms that coped best were those that had secured water and feed before the dry spell hit.
Practical steps to secure farm water now
- Find and fix leaks. A dam or reservoir that loses water through seepage or a failed liner is losing your drought reserve. Our guide to diagnosing farm dam leaks shows what to look for, and our dam repair service can assess a leaking dam on site.
- Line unlined or failing dams. Dam linings such as HDPE reduce seepage losses so more of the water you capture stays available.
- Add storage you control. Tanks and reservoirs next to your borehole or dam give you a buffer. See our corrugated steel water storage tanks and our agricultural water storage solutions.
- Add water points for livestock. The Department of Agriculture advises increasing the number of water and feed points, so check your troughs, pumps and pipelines before the heat arrives.
- Plan your levels. Our guide on managing farm dam water levels during prolonged droughts covers how to stretch what you have.
- Size your storage properly. Use our water storage calculators to estimate lining area and tank size before you ask for a quote.
What to watch over the coming months
- Monthly: the SAWS seasonal outlook and NOAA's ENSO update.
- Weekly: DWS reservoir reports for your catchment, plus your own dam and borehole levels.
- Late January to February 2027: rainfall and heat during maize flowering, the most critical yield window.
Frequently asked questions
Will El Niño cause a drought in South Africa in 2026/27?
Below-normal rainfall is favoured, but it is not guaranteed. Impacts will depend on local rainfall and other climate drivers. Because a very strong El Niño has brought both severe drought and near-normal rain in the past, preparing for a dry summer is the safer plan.
Are South African dams full going into El Niño?
Nationally, yes: storage was about 95.6% in early November 2026. The Western Cape is lower, at around 79%, and farms that rely on boreholes, rainfall or small private dams are not protected by national dam levels.
What is the best way for a farmer to prepare for El Niño?
Secure and protect your own water: repair leaks, line dams that lose water, add storage and water points, and match livestock numbers to your grazing and water supply.
If you would like help securing your farm's water, request a free quote or contact our team to arrange a site inspection.